All Cars On Market To Be Autonomous By 2046, Says Morgan Stanley analyst
|   Thursday, October 23, 2014
Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that all cars for sale in 2046 will be completely autonomous, in a statement for the Huffington Post. 2026 is the estimate as to when autonomous cars will be launched on the market, with 20 years required for the sale of these cars until they are dominant in the automotive industry.

Due to the presence of autonomous vehicles on the roads in 2046, Jonas expects 5.6 trillions of dollars to be saved at a global level by eliminating road deaths, accidents and material losses caused generally by human drivers.
By 2026, the analyst expects to see cars with autonomous functions that allow driver intervention, and complete control of it in the event that the infrastructure is not adapted to autonomous management.

Several car manufacturers are already working on their own autonomous driving systems. No matter who develops them, these systems have the same goal, namely the avoidance of deaths caused by road accidents and increased road safety. The cars that can drive themselves present numerous safety benefits, many risks being removed from the equation as long as everything works by the book.

Operating without technical problems is crucial for the future of autonomous cars, being necessary to develop a system of communication between them, as well as a system enabling them to run independently when inter-vehicle communication is restricted. In other words, manufacturers which will make autonomous cars need to develop management solutions to be implemented on those vehicles to avoid the situation where such a vehicle is causing an accident or is immobilized due to a communication error.

The most important achievements in the field comes from brands like Tesla, Volvo, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Nissan and BMW, each making several prototypes of autonomous vehicles. The folks at Google have scored too in this area, presenting a vehicle built from scratch that drives itself and has no command for drivers.
Preceding Jonas' predictions are 2 research studies from August 2013 which saw similar conclusions.

Navigant Research, market research firm, thinks that "by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75 percent of all light-duty vehicle sales." Research firm ABI Research also believes half of all new cars will be autonomous by 2032.

Victoria Transport Policy Institute, independent research organization released in December last year a report that outlined the state of vehicle autonomy in the future, saying: "The analysis indicates that some benefits, such as independent mobility for affluent non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or 2030s, but most impacts, including reduced traffic and parking congestion (and therefore road and parking facility supply), independent mobility for low-income people (and therefore reduced need to subsidize public transport), increased safety, energy conservation and pollution reductions, will only be significant when autonomous vehicles become common and affordable, probably in the 2040s through 2060s, and some benefits may require prohibiting human-driven vehicles on certain roadways, which could take even longer.''

Nissan has already announced plans for "multiple, commercially-viable autonomous drive vehicles by 2020", while Cadillac has promised to launch a semi-autonomous system in 2016. Mercedes-Benz's Future Truck 2025 concept and Tesla's plan to have fully-autonomous cars in 5-6 years should also be mentioned.
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